When it comes to liberty, nothing is more important or more sacred than the secret ballot. People will say all sorts of things for public consumption, but when they cast their votes they can usually be trusted to do what they think is best–whether or not they are fully informed.
Next Tuesday the voters of the United States will elect to the presidency the Republican candidate Mitt Romney. I predicted it back in February. In September I repeated that prediction but added that his win would bring between 310-320 electoral votes.
Now I’m prepared to be much more specific.
My prediction for Romney’s victory gives him no less than 321 electoral votes to Obama’s 217. Not only will it be a sizeable victory in the electoral college, it will include at least 52% of the popular vote. To win the election, 270 electoral votes are necessary.
Obama is losing ground quickly, even among many of the groups that firmly supported him in 2008. Independent voters and women are turning to Romney and voter turnout among some of Obama’s traditional constituencies will probably be down. Many who voted enthusiastically back in 2008 for a candidate they didn’t know now find themselves disillusioned. Those who knew the real Obama in 2008 have had our fears confirmed. Most Americans have paid dearly for his four-year vacation in the White House. A growing list of newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 have chosen Romney for 2012.
Republicans were demoralized in 2008. They are energized now beyond belief. GOP turnout will reach record numbers, as will turnout among Romney independents. In the privacy of the voting booth many a presumed Obama supporter will cast a vote for Romney.
In the so-called battleground states (unless fair elections are thwarted by voter fraud) I predict some exciting surprises: Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin will be victories for Romney. Less surprising, at least to my mind, will be his victories in Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and North Carolina. Even the independent-minded folks of New Hampshire will probably go for Romney. Michigan is now in play. I still have it painted blue for Obama, but it could go red for Romney.
This is my baseline position. The final results could be even stronger for Romney. In the 1980 presidential election in which Jimmy Carter sought a second term, the media predicted an easy win for Carter. The final electoral count was only 49 for Carter, with 489 going to Ronald Reagan.
If you’d like to study the Liberty Professor’s electoral map, click HERE.
We’ll return to my predictions on the day after the election. I promise to give myself a grade based on the actual results.
In the meantime, Romney voters must not be complacent. If the Romney victory isn’t clear and decisive, increased opportunities for vote fraud will emerge. In January, with a new president in the White House, constitutionalists can press their insistence on more federal faithfulness to the vision of smaller government demanded by the Constitution.
Constitutionalists should remember these days and savor them. Millions of Romney supporters are counting on his efforts to roll back the power and expense of the federal government. If he disappoints us, he can count us out for 2016.