The Liberty Professor Predicts 321 Electoral Votes (or More) for Romney

When it comes to liberty, nothing is more important or more sacred than the secret ballot.  People will say all sorts of things for public consumption, but when they cast their votes they can usually be trusted to do what they think is best–whether or not they are fully informed.

Next Tuesday the voters of the United States will elect to the presidency the Republican candidate Mitt RomneyI predicted it back in February.  In September I repeated that prediction but added that his win would bring between 310-320 electoral votes.

Now I’m prepared to be much more specific.

My prediction for Romney’s victory gives him no less than 321 electoral votes to Obama’s 217.  Not only will it be a sizeable victory in the electoral college, it will include at least 52% of the popular vote. To win the election, 270 electoral votes are necessary.

Obama is losing ground quickly, even among many of the groups that firmly supported him in 2008.  Independent voters and women are turning to Romney and voter turnout among some of Obama’s traditional constituencies will probably be down.  Many who voted enthusiastically back in 2008  for a candidate they didn’t know now find themselves disillusioned.  Those who knew the real Obama in 2008 have had our fears confirmed.  Most Americans have paid dearly for his four-year vacation in the White House.  A growing list of newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 have chosen Romney for 2012.

Republicans were demoralized in 2008.  They are energized now beyond belief.  GOP turnout will reach record numbers, as will turnout among Romney independents.  In the privacy of the voting booth many a presumed Obama supporter will cast a vote for Romney.

In the so-called battleground states (unless fair elections are thwarted by voter fraud) I predict some exciting surprises:  Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin will be victories for Romney.  Less surprising, at least to my mind, will be his victories in Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and North Carolina.  Even the independent-minded folks of New Hampshire will probably go for Romney.  Michigan is now in play.  I still have it painted blue for Obama, but it could go red for Romney.

This is my baseline position.  The final results could be even stronger for Romney.  In the 1980 presidential election in which Jimmy Carter sought a second term, the media predicted an easy win for Carter.  The final electoral count was only 49 for Carter, with 489 going to Ronald Reagan.

If you’d like to study the Liberty Professor’s electoral map, click HERE.

We’ll return to my predictions on the day after the election.  I promise to give myself a grade based on the actual results.

In the meantime, Romney voters must not be complacent.  If the Romney victory isn’t clear and decisive, increased opportunities for vote fraud will emerge.  In January, with a new president in the White House, constitutionalists can press their insistence on more federal faithfulness to the vision of smaller government demanded by the Constitution.

Constitutionalists should remember these days and savor them.  Millions of Romney supporters are counting on his efforts to roll back the power and expense of the federal government.  If he disappoints us, he can count us out for 2016.

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15 thoughts on “The Liberty Professor Predicts 321 Electoral Votes (or More) for Romney

  1. Dear Dr. Switzer,
    I follow your blogs with interest; however, I find it difficult to respond and wanted to comment on why. I feel myself to be a moderate. That means I have voted Republican or Democratic depending on which candidate I feel best will represent my moderate views if elected. I voted for Nixon and George H.W. Bush. I voted for Clinton and Obama. I scarcely be called a radical. Yet, I find your columns difficult to respond to because they are so radical. There is no center ground, no meeting of the minds, no room for cooperation. This sadly symbolized the last Congress. If my moderate views find no common ground with yours, then how can a liberal person find common grounds. And if your views accurately reflect the Republican Party or what you would wish the Republican Party to be, then your candidate has no chance let alone the runaway that you predict. Americans are not a radical people. By and large, most are moderate. They may be on the conservative side of moderate or the liberal side but they are moderate. My ideal ticket in 2008 would have been McCain and Lieberman. I voted not for Obama because he did not have the experience needed to run our country but against Sarah Palin being a heartbeat from the presidency. I see parallels in this year’s Republican ticket. I’ll bet you a Bud (or your choice) that your electoral vote prediction is 180 degrees out.

    • Thanks for your comments, Keith. I suspect I know who you are, at least by reputation! For me to respond adequately, I’ll need specifics on what it is you find so “radical” about my positions. If you’ll provde one or two, perhaps we can mitigate some of our inability to find common ground. It may be that you’ll discover my ideas aren’t so radical after all. For something to be “radical,” my friend, depends upon one’s point of view. I look forward to extending our conversation.

    • PS: I’ll take your bet. But if I win, make mine a glass of chardonnay!
      Oh, one final question: how could you be nervous about Sarah Palin’s nearness to the presidency and NOT be concerned with Obama? Why would an inexperienced community organizer who often didn’t show up for his votes in the Illinois state legislature make you more comfortable as president than an experienced state governor who, by most accounts among her constituents, has been an effective governor?

  2. I only hope you have the honour and testicular fortitude to come back and hang your head in shame and admit you were wrong – and most important, admit your analysis is based on zero facts, rather pulled out of thin air – after President Obama is re-elected.

    • Ola, thank you for your challenge, and thank you for reading my blog. I believe with all my heart that truth can be discovered only when we’re all in dialogue together. But in answer to your challenge, I’ll do one better: if Mitt Romney isn’t elected on Tuesday, I’ll let my readers decide whether or not to close down this blog. And if he IS elected, what gesture of humility will you offer, kind sir?

      I look forward to your reply.

      My predictions on this blog are not based upon “zero facts.” Nor are they “pulled out of thin air.” They are based on my efforts to listen to, study, and appreciate the average citizen on the street. As you point out, and validly, that doesn’t mean I am correct. Time will tell.

      Shall I look forward to your genuine apology on Tuesday night or on Wednesday morning?

      PS: Thank you for your inquiry regarding my health. My testicular fortitude is greater than ever. We’ll soon see if yours is likewise!

      • John,

        Like you, I too believe in intelligent dialogue – if only the majority of your right wing cohorts did too. The unnecessary name calling and abuse common in blogs similar to yours is baffling and sometimes hurtful.

        Having seen none of this kind of behaviour on your blog, I will offer you a pass on closing down the blog. For if you do, what conservative blog shall I visit to not be insulted.

        If Governor Romney is elected, my gesture of humility will be a public apology/concession to yourself and fans.

        I would urge you not offer false hope your readers such as Jon K below. Like Romney, you are exploiting their circumstances to peddle fear. For every tale of woe Romney peddles on his campaign, there are multiple success stories that exist Obama is responsible for and as such, most of the Obama voters of 08 will tell you they are thankful for giving him their vote – as will be the case on Tuesday, when I’ll be back to demonstrate modesty even in victory.

  3. Mr. Switzer, I sure hope you are right, along with Dick Morris. I went back to school, got an awesome degree and well, I’m on my seventh month looking for employment.I once voted for Obama, and I appologize to America for doing so….Thank you!

    • Jon K, apology accepted!

      If you would like to be enlightened in the details of how badly Mr. Obama’s economic policies have damaged us, read a book by Ludwig von Mises entitled LIBERALISM. As you read it, remember that Mises is talking about “classic liberalism,” or what we would call “free-market economy.” The word “liberal” has been hijacked. It used to mean freedom to live where you want, trade with whom you wish, live your life as you want without government interference, and to have freedom of religion. Sound familiar? Genuine (original, or classic) liberalism includes the ideals that gave rise to our nation.

  4. Good luck with this. Although I agree with your political opinions, I’m afraid you’re being way too optimistic. Sure, the liberal media can be biased and poll favorably for Obama, but so can the right wing media. Both sides have been known to be considerably wrong weeks ahead of the election, but they all come back to the same levels just days ahead.

    For example, upon researching Carter’s poll numbers a week before the election, I learned that although the media predicted a Carter win, they did so in the summer…. by October, they polled correctly, that Reagan was headed for a win. A win he did!!

    Every election cycle, pollsters have been known to have political leanings, however pollsters like Rassmussen and NYTIMES often dial heir numbers back to reality days before the election so they won’t go on record being “wrong”.

    Dick Morris predicted a “landslide” for Romney on Friday’s hannity, and got the headlines he wanted. However the next day, he suddenly changed his predictions citing “trouble signs for Romney”. Hmmm, ok, another example of last minute adjustments for the historical records.

    Again, I agree with you on so many levels, but it looks like you’re embracing polls meant to give Romney the look of “momentum”. Momentum that disappeared after Sandy….

  5. Well, this IS going to be interesting! Let’s see…I can’t find a timestamp for your blog entry, John, so I can’t do a precise hour-to-hour comparison, but as of 8.26pm CST, FiveThirtyEight says this: Obama wins with 314.4 electoral votes and 50.9% of the popular vote. Moreover, (If I’m reading Silver’s blog correctly), Obama wins OH, PA, MI, and even FL. So: overall, very divergent results. Your prediction seems to be largely predicated on the idea that people lie to pollsters: “In the privacy of the voting booth many a presumed Obama supporter will cast a vote for Romney.”

    Well, hey, maybe you’re right! I have absolutely no intuitions about how people will vote, so I’m going with FiveThirtyEight, only because it’s statistically rigorous. If it turns out to be badly wrong, then either Nate Silver has a terrible model or the polling data he uses – which is basically ALL of it – is fundamentally flawed.

    I’m writing these numbers down here so that we can go back and look. It will indeed be interesting.

    Sadly for you, even if Romney wins, I think you’ll be very disappointed. I don’t see him being the “limited Constitutionalist” that you would like him to be.

    • I’ll give you one point, my dear friend Chris–Mitt Romney will not be the limited constitutionalist that I’d like him to be. I realize that and have said so on my blog. But, as many before me have quipped, “at least he’s not a socialist.”

      If I may, I would like to point out one other important matter: our differences are not based upon the fact that you’re using more statistically respectable sources while I’m not. I am also using statistical sources. Mine come from Dick Morris (former Clinton administration advisor), Rasmussen, and analyst Michael Barone. Each has impressive experience. What makes our viewpoints different is not only our preference for sources but also the fact that I’ve added “streetwise” intuition. I suspect that you’re simply leaning upon the New York Times–especially given the fact that the source you continually cite is one that is a favorite of that publication.

      We won’t have to wait long for the answer to our questions!

  6. There are a lot of indicators that tell me you are right John,then i watched the news last night and was terrified. Looking at the 2010 election, Wisconsin recall, and the fact that the President had to move his convention,(and the unions did not contribute to it this year) makes me feel hope. Then in the back of my mind I decide what I will pack on the boat if you are wrong. With luck we will have people who are alive when they vote, and they only vote once,

  7. Anxiously awaiting your concession speech. Also, as you said above you would let your readers decide whether or not to shut down your blog. Based on the accuracy of your predictions, I have to vote yes and ask you to gracefully step down from your post of constitutionalist punditeer. Democracy’s a bitch huh. Ahh the sweet taste of liberty.

  8. John – I applaud your courage you have demonstrated in at least making a bold prediction and standing by it. Many of your peers either lacked the aptitude/gonads to make a prediction or wavered at every stage of the predictions. A certain Dick Morris springs to my mind.

    I would propose some caution and restraint in future predictions – or at least strong caveats to avoid the danger of peddling false hope to the fans.

    Re the blog – I’ll do a Mitt Romney and double down; hence vote to keep it open.

    Any takers for a 2016 wager?

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