This is not an endorsement–it’s simply a blogger’s prediction based upon intuition and analysis. I have a good track record with this type of thing. In late 1999 I accurately predicted that the Republicans would run George W. Bush. When I saw Barack Obama at the 2004 Democratic Convention I knew he’d be the Democrat nominee in 2008. Now I’m going to predict that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for 2012 to face Obama.
Breaking news this past week brought us the information that causes me to be confident in my prediciton. The last great objection to Romney is fading as polls report that evangelical Christians, for the most part, won’t allow Romney’s Mormonism to stop them from giving him their vote for president.
I’ve actually believed for some time that he would be the chosen one for the GOP simply because he’s the darling of the so-called “mainstream” media. Romney, in my book, is not a genuine conservative. But he is more conservative than Barack Obama, certainly. What they have in common is a belief that big government can solve our problems. In the end, with Obama facing Romney, we’ll have one more debate between a leftist and a moderate. True conservatives–constitutional conservatives–will be left out in the cold, at least as far as most of the media is concerned. Even Fox News saves a sneer for the real conservatives in the debate.
What I’m NOT ready to predict yet is just what type of response will come from the genuine conservatives. Some in the main wing of the Tea Party are returning to Ron Paul. This may be because they finally realize that they have been unjustly painted with the same radical label that marks Ron Paul. This sizeable portion of our electorate could cause major problems to the Republican party, but the GOP leadership still fails to recognize what a powerful force the Tea Party is.
Tea Party power is grassroots power. If Ron Paul were to clarify his non-interventionist ideology in such a way as to make Americans more comfortable with his approach to Iran his influence could grow even stronger.
With Romney as the Republican nominee there might be the chance of a Ron Paul-Tea Party coalition to field him as a third-party candidate. That would be a fascinating development but it would certainly guarantee the re-election of Barack Obama.