In 2012 the GOP Will Run Mitt Romney

 This is not an endorsement–it’s simply a blogger’s prediction based upon intuition and analysis.  I have a good track record with this type of thing.  In late 1999 I accurately predicted that the Republicans would run George W. Bush.  When I saw Barack Obama at the 2004 Democratic Convention I knew he’d be the Democrat nominee in 2008.  Now I’m going to predict that Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for 2012 to face Obama.

Breaking news this past week brought us the information that causes me to be confident in my prediciton.  The last great objection to Romney is fading as polls report that evangelical Christians, for the most part, won’t allow Romney’s Mormonism to stop them from giving him their vote for president.

I’ve actually believed for some time that he would be the chosen one for the GOP simply because he’s the darling of the so-called “mainstream” media.  Romney, in my book, is not a genuine conservative.  But he is more conservative than Barack Obama, certainly.  What they have in common is a belief that big government can solve our problems.  In the end, with Obama facing Romney, we’ll have one more debate between a leftist and a moderate.  True conservatives–constitutional conservatives–will be left out in the cold, at least as far as most of the media is concerned.  Even Fox News saves a sneer for the real conservatives in the debate.

What I’m NOT ready to predict yet is just what type of response will come from the genuine conservatives.  Some in the main wing of the Tea Party are returning to Ron Paul.  This may be because they finally realize that they have been unjustly painted with the same radical label that marks Ron Paul.  This sizeable portion of our electorate could cause major problems to the Republican party, but the GOP leadership still fails to recognize what a powerful force the Tea Party is.

Tea Party power is grassroots power.  If Ron Paul were to clarify his non-interventionist ideology in such a way as to make Americans more comfortable with his approach to Iran his influence could grow even stronger. 

With Romney as the Republican nominee there might be the chance of a Ron Paul-Tea Party coalition to field him as a third-party candidate.  That would be a fascinating development but it would certainly guarantee the re-election of Barack Obama.

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2 thoughts on “In 2012 the GOP Will Run Mitt Romney

  1. It would probably secure Obama’s second term except there are plenty of democrats disappointed in him and there might be a grassroots left movement which challenges him. Regardless of the Presidency I feel that Ron Paul should lead either a Tea or Libertarian Party group of candidates for Congress. It’s high time American politics had a viable third party.

  2. My prediction: This election will come down to Romney vs. Paul.

    Ron Paul is 1st or 2nd in Iowa and tied for 2nd in New Hampshire. I believe Gingrich will fade. Cain is already fading.

    Paul’s supporters are FAR more enthusiastic than any other. They will tredge through snow or broken glass to vote for him. I believe he could win Iowa and will place 2nd in New Hampshire. Probably 3rd or 4th in South Carolina.

    A bold and bias prediction. But here’s why: ONLY Romney and Paul have the money. ONLY Romeny and Paul have the organization and the numbers. ONLY Romney and Paul have loyal supporters from the left as well as the right. Romney’s advantage here is the media. He’s a liberal. He’s got rich, liberal friends. Neither of these applies to Paul. Paul is at a disadvantage, even though the internet is on his side.

    Paul’s only shot is the win Iowa, place strong in South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada(which I predict he will place in the top 3 in all.) From there he needs to win Texas and California.

    The media will ignore or demonize him the whole way. They will claim Paul is a “radical” while Romney is “moderate”. (This is true, in a certain way, though not how the media will portray it.) If Paul wins the nomination, the media will do to him what it did to Goldwater in 1964: Misportray his positions and claim catastrophy is just around the corner with someone like Paul at the wheel. We’ll even see the idea that Paul is “too old” to run. (Even though we’re already in a catastrophy, and our young President has made things worse.)

    Paul’s biggest advantage against Obama is Foreign Policy. Obama was elected on the promise of bringing the troops home. The words of Robert Browning come to mind: “My first thought was; he lied in every word.” Paul has the antiwar credintials. Obama does not. The media would lavish Obama and ignore Paul, here. But it would be great fun to see Obama squirm on this issue.

    Paul is the Republican Party’s only hope to beat Obama. Republicans will hold their noses and pull the lever for Paul come Nov 2012 because there is an “R” behind his name. Moderate Liberals will vote for Paul because of his antiwar credintials. They’ll be intrigued by his desire to repeal the Patriot Act and legalize pot. (Though these last two have never been major issues to the majority of voters.) The problem is that most Republicans are too blind to see this. They think Paul is the new John McCain. They will think this, because the media will portray the “Liberal” Paul this way. In fact, Romney is the new McCain. He’s a pro-war Liberal. (The correct term is “NeoConservative,” though you won’t hear the media use it.) Romney is for torture, war and cutting welfare. This will not go over with most Americans. Only the radical Tea Party types will want to cut social services in the current economy and/or continue the wars in the Middle East. The rest will vote for Obama.

    If Romney is the nominee, Obama wins big in 2012. If the economy tanks (it will) Obama will promise more goodies from the nanny state. His poll numbers will increase. Romney will also promise goodies. This will offend Tea Party types. Romney will lose a lot of his base, just as McCain did in 2008. The Occupy Wallstreet crowd is passionate, but uneducated. Obama will become “one of them.” He’s already portraying himself as a “populist.” He will succeed. He will destroy Romney, just as he destroyed McCain.

    Bottom line: Ron Paul is our only hope. The media and the Republican Party are too dumb, by and large, to comprehend this. They’re still clueless about how the financial crisis happened, or whether or nor Iran has a nuke. The American people trust them, even though they have been wrong on every important issue from WMD in Iraq to the current financial mess. Ron Paul has been correct on everything. But that doesn’t matter. They’ll ignore him.

    “The only thing a man can do is educate himself.”–Ben Franklin.

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